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Machine Learning for Trading

CS7646 ML4T 

Book References

machine-learning-for-trading 

What Hedge Funds Really Do by Romero and Balch 

Machine Learning, Tom Mitchell 

Random Forest & Q-Learner Strategy Learner

Final project for 3 different types of ML: Decision Trees, reinforcement learning, optimization.

Quantative factors X, dependant variable Y.

Regression Trees

X1, X2, X3 -> Regression model -> Y

  1. Roll back to the beginning of data to get training data.
  2. Measure X1, X2, X3 data, not peek forward, only use data until the date.
  3. Build the model: Decision Trees, reinforcement learning, optimization.

Drawbacks:

Cannot distinguish between

  • Uncertain large return
  • Certain small return
  • When doing nothing is smart

Don’t know when to exit.

Reinforcement learning

Q&A

What should we consider in manual strategy?

Align the API.

Is it useful normalizing the indicators?

Decision Tree could have not standardized indicators.

KNN needs to have standardized indicators.

How to make Dyna run faster?

Use vectorizing code.

How do we combine indicators, sequentially?

Or how do we assign weight or priority in developing a strategy?

  • Find threshold for each indicators. Just use the threshold, then voting
  • Sequentially one by one (All should be true)
  • Assign weight to each one.

Start with 1 indicator first, see if it’s better to add more indicators.

Extra Resources

Financial, Investing, and Trading

Machine Learning

Reinforcement Learning

Deep Learning

  • Deep Learning  (Book) - This is the current leading Deep Learning textbook
  • Deep Learning Revolution  (Book) - An easy-to-read book that presents Deep Learning, starting with a historical perspective and stepping forward to today.
  • Deep Learning  (Nature Article) - A good article by Hinton and others on deep learning. Access through the Georgia Tech Library.
  • Grokking Deep Learning  (Book) - A good book that, like ML4T, will have you implementing algorithms and models.
  • Foundations of Deep Reinforcement Learning  (Book) - Sections 1.1 through 1.4 provide a nice introduction to reinforcement learning and our work in CS7646.
  • deeplearning.ai  (Website) - A learning & education site by Andrew Ng.

PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER/efficient frontier 

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